But what actually happens?

They watch news.

They follow tips.

They try different strategies.

And slowly, confusion increases. The same happens with me also.

Then I realised, this happens not because we are not capable but because the market is full of noise.

..

I have been in the market for the last few years, and one thing became very clear to me. The problem is not lack of information. The problem is lack of clear thinking.

Markets move based on behaviour, money flows and structure.

If you don’t understand this, you will always feel lost, no matter how much you learn.

..

So I started WaverEdge.

Not to give tips.

Not to predict the market.

But to share how I think.

..

Here, I will focus on:

• Understanding where money is flowing in Indian stock market.

• Reading market behaviour

• Building a disciplined approach to swing trading

• Developing clear and independent thinking.

..

And just as important,

what you will NOT find here:

No buy/sell tips

No noise

No shortcuts

This is for working professionals who want to approach the market seriously and build a second income skill with discipline.

If that sounds like you, you are in the right place.

- WaverEdge | Saiprasad

In this study, I start with the long-term structure to understand how the market has evolved over time.

The goal is to learn the rhythm and structure of the market, not to make predictions.

This post focuses on the bigger structure that shapes market behavior and helps in understanding market cycles clearly.

Let’s start with the charts.

I am using the monthly chart with data starting from around 1980.

What happened in 2008?

2008 was the Global Financial Crisis. It was one of the biggest market crashes in history.

What Caused It?

1. US housing problem

2. Loans failed

3. Big banks collapsed

4. Fear spread everywhere

Impact On India?

• Foreign investors sold heavily

• Liquidity dried up

• Sensex fell more than 50%

• Economy slowed

Why it Matters For Your Elliott Wave Study?

From an Elliott Wave view:

• 2008 = major bear market

• Massive crowd fear

• End of a long bullish cycle

• It is a key reference point for long-term wave counting.

The first major bull rally lasted from 1980 to 2008, around 28 years.

This bull run started in October 2008 and continued until January 2020, lasting around 11 years.

Also, keep one thing in mind: while counting waves, I strictly follow the three main Elliott Wave rules.

Rule 1

Wave 2 can never retrace more than 100% of Wave 1.

Rule 2

Wave 3 is never the shortest wave; it must be longer than either Wave 1 or Wave 5.

Rule 3

Wave 4 should not enter Wave 1 territory
(except in diagonal patterns).

Next, look at how I count my waves carefully.

This long journey shows how markets evolve over time,
moving through cycles of growth, correction, fear, and optimism.

From 1980 to 2025, the market has come a long way.

This long-term journey highlights how market cycles develop over time
and why studying the full structure is important.

Let’s jump back to the charts.

If you have read my previous study on the Nifty 50, you will notice that I reached a similar point there as well.

In that study, I considered three possible scenarios.
I am applying the same logic here.

Below is the Nifty-50 chart from my previous study.

What I said there:

I already know that Wave 4 has corrected Wave 3 by nearly 50%, which satisfies a typical retracement requirement.

So, Wave 4 may have already completed there.

However, if Wave 4 is still unfolding, the next likely possibility is the development of a triangle pattern, since triangles most commonly occur in the Wave 4 position. That was my possible scenario at that time.

The same logic and possibility I am considering here because,

The Nifty 50 and the Sensex usually move in the same direction.

According to Dow Theory, both indices should confirm each other’s direction to show a real and healthy market move.

If one index moves up while the other does not,
It reflects divergence; it signals confusion, not a strong trend.

So, I am not repeating the next possible scenarios here.

To understand the next possible scenarios,
I recommend going through my Nifty 50 study, where I have explained them in detail.

The same logic applies here,
and by the end of that study, the structure will become clear.

I have shared the link below for reference.

Thank you for your time.

The charting Platform I am using is

Disclaimer:

The content provided herein—including Elliott Wave counts and analysis of the Sensex Index is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. This material is not intended as a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. Markets are inherently risky, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Before executing any trades or investments, you should conduct your own thorough research or consult a qualified financial advisor based on your individual goals, risk appetite, and circumstances. I am not a Sebi-registered research analyst. By using this content, you accept that you are responsible for your own decisions and outcomes, and neither the content creator nor any associated entity can be held liable for any gains or losses arising from your actions.

Thanks for reading WaverEdge! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Last week, we covered Silver.

Today, I am taking the same MCX Silver charts to see the latest update.

So it is very important to read my previous analysis. Link is below,

Now I am assuming that you read. Now let’s look at the fresh update.

Once you read this till the end, you will understand the real importance of flexibility in the Elliott wave application.

So let’s start.

I switched from the daily chart to the hourly chart for more detailed information.

From here is the main skill that I am hoping you can give me more focus and attention here to understand.

In my previous Weekly Elliott Wave Letter, I said,

I use “If” at the start. right!

What does it mean?

means I am thinking of possibilities.

Last week, I thought Wave 3 was completed. If this is true, what are the next possibilities? ( That was exactly in my mind )

Then I told the next possibilities.

Clearly, I was thinking Wave 4 could be complex and sideways.

Once again, I am alerting you. This is only true IF wave 3 (red) ends there.

Then I said,

Now, from here, understand the latest Price Action,

According to me, we are still in Wave 3 (Red).

Elliott Wave analysis is not about sticking to one fixed wave count. The market keeps changing, and as price develops, the wave structure also becomes clearer. A good analyst stays flexible and adjusts the wave count based on new price information instead of forcing the market to fit one view.

The Charting Platform I am using is

Thank you.

Disclaimer:

The content provided herein—including Elliott Wave counts and analysis of the Nifty-50 Index is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. This material is not intended as a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. Markets are inherently risky, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Before executing any trades or investments, you should conduct your own thorough research or consult a qualified financial advisor based on your individual goals, risk appetite, and circumstances. I am not a Sebi-registered research analyst. By using this content, you accept that you are responsible for your own decisions and outcomes, and neither the content creator nor any associated entity can be held liable for any gains or losses arising from your actions.

Hello, my friends. Have a wonderful Sunday.

Over the last few days, Silver has caught my attention.

Then I thought, why not to cover this chart with the Elliott Lens?

So, this week I chose to cover silver, and let’s see where we are in the cycle.

I always start my analysis from the higher degree. (Monthly chart).

I have data from March 2015, so from that low point, I am starting my analysis.

From the monthly chart, it is clear that Silver is unfolding Wave 3 of a higher-degree. To understand that degree of wave 3, I am moving from the monthly chart to the weekly chart.

If you are a weekly reader of my “Elliott Wave Letter”, then you may know that I use different colors for different degrees.

Now, the green color I am using to analyze the internal waves of that higher degree (blue waves)

Following the completion of Wave 3, the highlighted 23.6%–38.2% Fibonacci retracement zone represents a high-probability area where Wave 4 could potentially unfold.

If Wave 3 appears to have completed near recent highs. The ongoing pullback is being monitored as a potential Wave 4 correction, though the structure is not yet clear. If this corrective phase completes within the expected Fibonacci retracement zone, a subsequent Wave 5 advance may unfold, subject to confirmation from lower-timeframe structure.

Charting Platform I am using

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Thank you.

Disclaimer:

The content provided herein—including Elliott Wave counts and analysis of the Nifty-50 Index is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. This material is not intended as a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. Markets are inherently risky, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Before executing any trades or investments, you should conduct your own thorough research or consult a qualified financial advisor based on your individual goals, risk appetite, and circumstances. I am not a Sebi-registered research analyst. By using this content, you accept that you are responsible for your own decisions and outcomes, and neither the content creator nor any associated entity can be held liable for any gains or losses arising from your actions.

In this article, you will understand where we currently stand in the Nifty 50 price cycle. Since the Nifty 50 reflects the overall sentiment of India’s top 50 companies, this analysis also gives us a broader sense of how the economy is performing. So stay connected and read the full story to get a deeper and clearer understanding.

I am staring from the monthly chart, and considering March 2020 as my significant low for my next analysis.

I labeled zero to know this is my starting point, then wave 1 and wave 2 as shown in the chart.

No doubt, no difficulty in counting waves, still wave 2, right!

Just so you know, I am still on the monthly chart, just zooming in after wave 2 to the next reversal.

Now let’s count these waves.

Now, understand, I use different colors for different degrees.

for example, in the above chart, the Blue color wave 1 and 2 is one higher degree than the Green color wave 1 and 2.

This is the simplest way to understand in which degree we are in.

From this point, the game of possibilities begins. As doubts and complexity increase, most Elliott Wave users tend to give up. They start questioning the theory and calling it too subjective. But the real analyst knows how to handle multiple possibilities smartly; that’s what separates those who quit from those who master it.

Let’s focus on the chart again,

When there are multiple possible counts, I always give myself the benefit of doubt. I step back and look at the market from all valid perspectives.
One small trick I use, I mark ‘?’ In front of my count.
The moment I see that, my mind becomes alert. It’s my internal signal that this part of the structure has multiple possibilities, so I need to stay flexible and careful.

I already know that Wave 4 has corrected Wave 3 by nearly 50%, which satisfies a typical retracement requirement. So, it’s possible that Wave 4 has already completed there.
However, if Wave 4 is still unfolding, the next likely possibility is the development of a triangle pattern, since triangles most commonly occur in the Wave 4 position.

Another alternate possibility, though less likely in my view, is that Wave 4 could be unfolding as a flat correction.
While the probability of this outcome is lower, in markets anything is possible, so it’s important to keep this scenario in consideration.

The pure purpose of this analysis is to guide your thought process so you can start thinking like an Elliott Wave Analyst.
I’m assuming your current focus is on learning, not trading, and I never suggest to do trading with my analysis. So, your main priority should be to understand how to apply the theory in real market conditions, that’s where true skill develops.

Conclusion of what we study till now:

• We are still in wave 3 of big higher degree ( Blue wave 3 )

• Big Wave 3 (Blue) is still in progress. Inside it, we are in Wave 4 or 5 (Green)

• With this understanding, something becomes clear: the market may turn more volatile, and we may still be some distance away from a clean, one-directional move. In such a scenario, the smartest approach is to stay alert and protect capital, because what looks clear today can change instantly.

• If Wave 4 evolves into a complex correction, the difficulty increases even further. This is why many professionals prefer staying out during complex Wave 4 structures: nobody can predict the completion beforehand, and clarity only appears once the pattern is fully formed.

• Looking at the broader environment, global factors may add an extra layer of uncertainty. President Putin’s visit to India and the series of defence, energy, and strategic cooperation deals being discussed could influence long-term market sentiment.

• At the same time, the US–India trade deal remains pending, and its outcome will play a major role in shaping India’s export environment, tariff structure, and investor confidence going forward.

With geopolitical shifts, bilateral agreements, and global growth signals still unfolding, the market may continue to behave unpredictably in the short term. So during this phase, the priorities remain simple:

1. protect capital.

2. Stay flexible with wave counts.

3. and wait for the price to reveal the clear direction before going aggressive.

Thank You…

The charting platform I used is

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Disclaimer:

The content provided herein—including Elliott Wave counts and analysis of the Nifty-50 Index is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. This material is not intended as a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. Markets are inherently risky, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Before executing any trades or investments, you should conduct your own thorough research or consult a qualified financial advisor based on your individual goals, risk appetite, and circumstances. I am not a Sebi-registered research analyst. By using this content, you accept that you are responsible for your own decisions and outcomes, and neither the content creator nor any associated entity can be held liable for any gains or losses arising from your actions.

To read my previous post, the link below, and come back to this one.

Look at my thought process at that time. (Below is the past chart from last week)

I was in doubt, and for that reason, I put a Question mark in front of Wave 3. This small mark signals my brain that there could still be an alternative possibility.

Then I go ahead with the consideration of what if Wave 3 ends There.

I was thinking the most likely possibility.

So, here are two possibilities for next week’s move:

Possibility 1: If Pink wave 5 ends, which means we also end the big correction that I was considering a flat correction. So naturally we could resume to start the next higher degree wave in the upward direction with the trend.

Possibility 2: If we are still in ongoing Wave 5 (pink) that takes the form of an ending diagonal, then we are in Wave 4 of its sub-wave, as shown in the chart below.

The Charting platform I use here is:

That is for the Week. Have a joyful Sunday. Take care of yourself and your family.

Disclaimer:

The content provided herein—including Elliott Wave counts and analysis of the Nifty-50 Index is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. This material is not intended as a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. Markets are inherently risky, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Before executing any trades or investments, you should conduct your own thorough research or consult a qualified financial advisor based on your individual goals, risk appetite, and circumstances. I am not a Sebi-registered research analyst. By using this content, you accept that you are responsible for your own decisions and outcomes, and neither the content creator nor any associated entity can be held liable for any gains or losses arising from your actions.

Today is the 2nd of November 2025 - SUNDAY.

ON THIS WONDERFUL DAY, I plan to apply my Elliott wave skill on the Nifty-50 index.

So let’s move on to the charts.

In the Elliott Wave Theory, Ralph Nelson Elliott saw that most of the sideways correction happens in Wave 4. Try to understand the psychology behind it.

Psychology behind why most of Wave 4 forms a sideways correction in the pattern form, namely Flat, Triangles, or a Combination of corrections. This happens because most traders look whole Wave 3 strong rally and directional move, so they feel they are missing the rally, and they find a place to enter in the rally, so late participants try to enter, and that action of crowd psychology reflects Wave 4.

So in this Post, we will focus only on the latest price action and try to understand in which shape the price is trying to create a pattern.

As an Elliott Wave trader, I often face this kind of challenge. To handle such situations, I simply put a question mark (?) in front of my wave count. This small mark signals my brain that there could still be an alternative possibility, for example, that we might still be inside Wave 3.

No one can predict the exact ending point of Wave 3 in advance. The nature of Wave 3 is that it often extends far beyond expectations, even when it appears to have completed.

I can share this with confidence because I’ve made many mistakes in the early phase of my trading journey. I used to assume that Wave 3 had ended and would take counter-trades, and that turned out to be one of the biggest mistakes of my career.

From those experiences, I learned one golden rule:
Never trade against Wave 3.

This realization changed my trading forever. Just by understanding this single concept deeply, you can save a lot of money.

What I am thinking right now:

There’s a major event around the corner, the Bihar State Assembly Elections. Voting will take place in multiple phases and is expected to end by 11th November 2025, with results likely announced around 14th–15th November 2025.
Until then, I believe the market may remain stable without any major surprises. But once the results are out, the market could react sharply to the outcome.
As an Elliott Wave practitioner, I expect volatility to rise during this period, as uncertainty and emotions among participants often translate into larger price swings on the charts.

So, stay alert and keep your sniper ready. The market might be waiting for clarity and just be taking a breath before its next move.

Thank YOU.

Subscribe to receive such deep Elliott Wave insights directly in your email.

no noise, just pure market insight.

WaverEdge

Charting Software That I use for this Analysis:

Disclaimer:

The content provided herein—including Elliott Wave counts and analysis of the Nifty-50 Index is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. This material is not intended as a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. Markets are inherently risky, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Before executing any trades or investments, you should conduct your own thorough research or consult a qualified financial advisor based on your individual goals, risk appetite, and circumstances. I am not a Sebi-registered research analyst. By using this content, you accept that you are responsible for your own decisions and outcomes, and neither the content creator nor any associated entity can be held liable for any gains or losses arising from your actions.

Thank You.

Charting Software Used: TradingView

Thank YOU.

Thank you.

Disclaimer:

The content provided herein—including Elliott Wave counts and analysis of the Crude Oil—is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. This material is not intended as a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. Markets are inherently risky, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Before executing any trades or investments, you should conduct your own thorough research or consult a qualified financial advisor based on your individual goals, risk appetite, and circumstances. I am not a Sebi-registered research analyst. By using this content, you accept that you are responsible for your own decisions and outcomes, and neither the content creator nor any associated entity can be held liable for any gains or losses arising from your actions.

In this post, I would like to share my thoughts about the latest Price Action in the Nifty-50 Index. So without any delay, I am jumping directly on the Nifty chart.

I am using a Bar Chart. The Bar Chart shows waves more clearly. It gives the best wave visuals, which is why I prefer it.

In my early days of applying the theory in the real market, I lost most of my money in Wave 4. The reason was simple: Wave 4 corrections are tricky. What looks like a flat correction letter becomes complex and then confusing. the reality is that only after the pattern finishes, the picture becomes clear on the chart. but by then, I had already lost. This could be the biggest lesson of today’s post. By understanding this simple thing, you will protect your capital later as an Elliott Wave practitioner. Which I realized after a lot of trial and error.

This experience sparked my realization that Wave 4 is more about patience, discipline, and waiting for the right confirmation. This is what you can learn.

Let’s see how the market unfolds. Meet you next weekend. till date take care.

Charting Platform I used:

Thank you. Good luck.

Disclaimer:

The content provided herein—including Elliott Wave counts and analysis of the NIFTY-50 index is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. This material is not intended as a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. Markets are inherently risky, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Before executing any trades or investments, you should conduct your own thorough research or consult a qualified financial advisor based on your individual goals, risk appetite, and circumstances. I am not a Sebi-registered research analyst. By using this content, you accept that you are responsible for your own decisions and outcomes, and neither the content creator nor any associated entity can be held liable for any gains or losses arising from your actions.

Today is the 14th of September 2025. On this wonderful day, I am starting my Wave counts on a Higher degree (Monthly Chart). In this journey, you will understand where we are in the long-term cycle, the likely possibility in the short term, & How I think while counting my Waves. So let’s start with charts.

I am using this plus function bar to Zoom in on the particular area on the chart for more clarity.

In which direction is your Convection building? We are in Green Sub-wave 3 Or Completed Big degree Blue wave 3, and we are in Blue Wave 5? I would like to read your thoughts in the comment box.

The chart below is a Bar Chart for Clear visuals.

This is how I count and apply the Elliott Waves on Real charts. This is one of the great ways to understand Price Action in a better way. Thank You for your Time. Will see you in the next weekly Updates.

Charting Software I am Using:

Disclaimer:

The content provided herein—including Elliott Wave charts and analysis of the NIFTY50 index—is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. This material is not intended as a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. Markets are inherently risky, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Before executing any trades or investments, you should conduct your own thorough research or consult a qualified financial advisor based on your individual goals, risk appetite, and circumstances. I am not a Sebi-registered research analyst. By using this content, you accept that you are responsible for your own decisions and outcomes, and neither the content creator nor any associated entity can be held liable for any gains or losses arising from your actions.

1. What happened in the current week &

2. What are the most likely possibilities to happen in the upcoming week?

the pure intention and purpose of this weekly post is to help you understand price action in a better way, how I count waves, how I combine price action and Elliott wave analysis to understand current psychology and sentiments in the market. So it could help you to develop your independent thinking power. With this commitment, I am starting today’s post.

Most Likely Probability of how the price could behave in the coming days.

Charting Software I am Using:

Disclaimer:
The content provided herein—including Elliott Wave charts and analysis of the NIFTY50 index—is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. This material is not intended as a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. Markets are inherently risky, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Before executing any trades or investments, you should conduct your own thorough research or consult a qualified financial advisor based on your individual goals, risk appetite, and circumstances. I am not a Sebi-registered research analyst. By using this content, you accept that you are responsible for your own decisions and outcomes, and neither the content creator nor any associated entity can be held liable for any gains or losses arising from your actions.

I come up with fresh analysis, and in this post, I plan to cover the latest price action, and we will try to understand what's happening in the market.

As you all know, there is global uncertainty, and a trade war is ongoing. Recently, American President Donald Trump threatened 50% tariffs on Indian goods and services. That impact was shown in the market last week. We will see this impact from the lens of the Elliott Wave. So, without any delay, let’s start the weekly analysis with the fresh wave chats.